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Approches intégrées de construction et d’analyse des modèles de systèmes pétroliers : apports pour l’exploration pétrolière

Abstract : Numerical tools for petroleum system modeling and forward stratigraphic modeling were designed to account for complex processes responsible for hydrocarbon accumulations in petroleum reservoirs. These processes, which extended to new mechanisms and gained details with increasing understanding, involve several geoscience disciplines making difficult the building of models consistent with both data and knowledge. The work performed during this Ph.D. aims at making basin modeling more accessible to geoscientists first by making easier the integration of geological concepts and available data during the process of model building and then by improving quality of forecasts and of risk quantification through sensitivity and risk analysis on maps. In a first section, two methods designed for better and easier estimation of the thermal history and of the distribution of marine organic matter in sedimentary basins are presented. They are based on a similar procedure which uses local data and regional knowledge to assess these two key aspects of petroleum system exploration. An optimization loop is initially performed on input parameters to fit on local data before extrapolating the results to basin scale under the constraint of the regional geological information. Both approaches were patented (Ducros, 2012; Ducros et Chauveau, 2015). The basin of Berkine in Algeria, for which an important set of thermal data is available, was used as an application case study for the method designed for estimating thermal history. The Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, known for its production of unconventionals, was used for illustrating the estimation of the distribution of organic matter. The second part of the work is dedicated to a new methodology for sensitivity and risk analysis on maps. It is built on a proxy-model of the simulator behavior in the uncertain space to save time during the sampling phase required for providing statistical results. It also uses a principal component analysis to reduce the space dimension when dealing with maps. The approach is illustrated on two case studies: one using a forward stratigraphic model for assessing the position of petroleum reservoirs and one on a petroleum system modeling tool for assessing the maturity of a source-rock in the Levant Basin. These new tools strengthen the integration of data coming from different disciplines to produce more consistent and robust results. They make easier the interpretation of risk analysis provided on a format compatible with classical methods of risk assessment in petroleum exploration such as CRS mapping. The results of this work emphasize the role of these tools for making the link between the different disciplines of geosciences to provide consistent and predictive results. They also give access to powerful risk mapping that can be part of a more general framework, called Common Risk Segment Mapping, used for risks assessment in petroleum exploration.
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Mathieu Ducros. Approches intégrées de construction et d’analyse des modèles de systèmes pétroliers : apports pour l’exploration pétrolière. Sciences de la Terre. Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris VI, 2017. Français. ⟨NNT : 2017PA066740⟩. ⟨tel-03208375⟩

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