On interval prediction of COVID-19 development based on a SEIR epidemic model

Denis Efimov (1) , Rosane Ushirobira (1)

1 VALSE - Finite-time control and estimation for distributed systems

In this brief report, a modified version of the wellknown mathematical epidemic model SEIR is used to analyze the epidemics course of COVID-19 in five different countries in the world. To this goal, the parameters of the SEIR model are identified by using publicly available data for the corresponding countries: France, Italy, Spain, Brazil and Russia. The identified model is then applied for the prediction of the SARS-CoV-2 virus propagation under different conditions of confinement. For this purpose, an interval predictor is designed allowing variations and uncertainties in the model parameters to be taken into account.

Domaines: Automatique / Robotique

Denis Efimov, Rosane Ushirobira. On interval prediction of COVID-19 development based on a SEIR epidemic model. [Research Report] Inria Lille Nord Europe - Laboratoire CRIStAL - Université de Lille. 2020. ⟨hal-02517866v3⟩