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Local interactions between rental and real estate housing markets

Abstract : The housing market consists of two main segments, the rental market and the sales market. Although these two markets operate differently, prices on the two markets are naturally subject to reciprocal interactions: the level of rents affects prices of sale, but prices on the sales market have an impact on rents. On the first approach, the rents are convertible into a selling price by a capitalization formula. However it is empirically observed that imbalances exist between the two markets. Thus, the relative dynamics of both prices and rents can vary over time, and also in the space of an urban area. How are prices in the two markets (sale and rental) related? How does one affect the other? Is the relationship between the two prices homogeneous in space? Why is it that some neighborhoods of an agglomeration have rents that are too low in relation to purchase prices? These questions are of particular interest to local policy actors in housing, in a context of strong tensions on the housingmarket as is the case in the Lyon conurbation. In particular, they are strongly linked to policies aimed at supporting the supply of housing or the level of market rents. This thesis aims to study the link between these two markets.The first chapter of this thesis attempts to observe whether rent to price ratios vary within an urban area and seeks to explain the differences between rent to price ratios, if they exist. After recalculating the rent to price ratios in the agglomeration, we observe a spatial heterogeneity of them. In the second part of this contribution, we develop a "tenure choice" model that allows us to highlight theoretical mechanisms that explain spatial variations in the rent to price ratio.The second chapter of this thesis deals with the relationship between private housing market prices and the construction of social housing. In this first empirical contribution, we test the impact of the SRU law on house prices using a double-difference method. The results indicate that as the municipality’s delay in achieving the SRU's objectives increases, it leads to an increase in the construction of social housing and, ultimately, a decrease in the price of the municipality's private housing. We also use a discontinuity regression method using the 3500 population threshold. The results of this second analysis suggest that the construction of social housing has had a negative impact on private housing prices in municipalities with more than 3500 inhabitants.Today, there are several policies that encourage landlords to rent low-rent housing or that attempt to facilitate access to home ownership. Nevertheless, while these policies have already been studied, this third chapter attempts to understand their combined impacts on the private housing market. In particular, we try to show the impact of purchase and rental support policies and zero-interest loan policies. The first step in our contribution is to design a theoretical model. This theoretical modelhighlights the effects of each of the two mechanisms and also highlights the reaction of the housing market when each of the two mechanisms is coupled with a rent control policy. In an empirical analysis, we check whether the predictions of the previously developed model are valid. The results indicate that the impact of the reform on new housing prices is positive. The last step in our analysis is a triple-difference method that that the growth of new housing prices accelerates in the presence oftight rent controls.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, May 19, 2020 - 2:35:10 PM
Last modification on : Thursday, August 20, 2020 - 4:30:08 PM


  • HAL Id : tel-02612762, version 1


Yohann Trouve. Local interactions between rental and real estate housing markets. Economics and Finance. Université de Lyon, 2019. English. ⟨NNT : 2019LYSE2111⟩. ⟨tel-02612762⟩



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